基于时间敏感需求及随机完工期的承诺交货期决策

在新的经济形势和高新技术指引下,产品更新换代的速度加快,基于时间的竞争成为供应链竞争的焦点.在制造商为核心的供应链中,产品需求除了与价格有关外,与承诺交货期也有一定关联,且部分客户愿意为快速交货而支付更高价格.当需求与时间及价格具有敏感性且实际完工期服从一定的随机分布时,建立利润最大化及服务水平约束的承诺交货期决策模型,并对模型进行讨论及优化分析.通过算例验证了模型的有效性,通过参数敏感性分析得出的结论是:当客户服务水平达到一定阈值时,最优承诺交货期将发生改变;价格及交货期敏感系数不影响承诺交货期,但影响产品需求及最终利润;最优承诺交货期与单位提早完工成本是反向变动的关系而与单位延迟完工成本是正向变动的关系;随着完工期均值及标准差的不断增大,最优承诺交货期呈上升趋势,利润、市场需求及价格不断下降.     

用不确定德尔菲法预测GDP

德尔菲法是一种建立在专家意见基础上的预测评估方法.不确定统计是利用不确定理论收集和整理分析专家数据的一种统计方法,其中关键的一点是如何构造不确定变量的不确定分布.把德尔菲法和不确定统计相结合,就得到了一种估计不确定分布的新方法——不确定德尔菲法.对该方法的估计误差进行了改进,得到了一种预测GDP的新方法,并利用其预测邯郸市的生产总值(GDP).     

M/G/1重试排队系统的渐近稳定性

用算子半群理论研究了带有重试排队的M/G/1系统.通过解算子方程和预解方程,证明了0是系统算子的本征值,且为虚轴上唯一的谱点.从而得出了当时间趋于无穷时系统时间依赖解收敛于稳态解的结论.     

假期中顾客以概率θ进人的Geo/G/1(E,SV)排队系统的队长分布

考虑单重休假的Geo/G/1离散时间排队系统,其中在服务员休假期间到达的顾客以概率θ(0<θ≤1)进入系统.通过引入"服务员忙期"和使用全概率分解技术,从任意初始状态出发,研究了队长的瞬态和稳态性质,导出了在任意时刻n瞬态队长分布的z-变换的递推表达式和稳态队长分布的递推表达式,以及稳态队长的随机分解.最后,通过数值实例,讨论了稳态队长分布对系统参数的敏感性,并阐述了获得便于计算的稳态队长分布的表达式在系统容量设计中有重要的价值.     

不规则格点上的车贝雪夫多项式在长江中下游降水分布预报中的应用

本文将任意不规则格点上的车贝雪夫多项式应用于长江中下游降水分布的预报.这一方法能适应资料分布的复杂变化,因而有更大的实用价值     

积分通用计划下零售商的联盟与利润分配

会员积分策略如今已经成为零售商普遍的促销手段,许多行业的零售商形成同业联盟或异业联盟,利用积分通用计划来提高业绩。在积分通用计划的背景下,考虑到零售商各自的促销与联盟之间零售商的竞争,本文旨在研究同业联盟零售商之间的积分转换比例与促销水平决策问题,使联盟总利润最大化,并在此基础上利用积分成本共担机制解决集中决策下利润分配不合理的问题。通过数值算例验证了所得结论的重要性,为零售商进行联盟合作伙伴的选择提供了参考意见。     

EXPLICIT EXPRESSIONS FOR SOME DISTRIBUTIONS RELATED TO RUIN PROBLEMS

The classical risk process that is perturbed by diffusion is studied .The explicit expressions for the runi probability and the surplus distribution of the risk process at the time of runi are obtained when the claim amount distribution is a finite mixture of exponential distributions of a Gamma (2,α） distribution.     

GENERALIZED OPERATORS AND OPERATOR-VALUED DISTRIBUTIONS IN QUANTUM FIELD THEORY

The relation between generalized operators and operator-valued distributions is discussed so that these two viewpoints can be used alternatively to explain quantum fields.     

Effect of precipitation procedure and detection technique on particle size distribution of CaCO3

The deposition of inorganic salts (“scales”) such as calcium carbonate is an important flow assurance problem during crude oil production. The knowledge of the features of the precipitated solids, mainly the particle size and morphology, is crucial to understand the nature of the solids and to avoid or reduce the effect of their deposition. For instance, the use of additives is one of the most usual procedures to mitigate this problem. Additives interact with scale-forming substances either by increasing the induction time, or by inhibiting crystal growth, changing the morphology of solids.     

Study of the effect of Wuzhi tablet (Schisandra sphenanthera extract) on tacrolimus tissue distribution in rat by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method

A liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry (LC‐MS/MS) method was developed and validated for determining tacrolimus (FK506) in rat tissues to study the effect of Schisandra sphenanthera extract on FK506 tissue distribution. After a liquid–liquid extraction with ethyl acetate, FK506 and ascomycin (IS) were subjected to LC‐MS/MS analysis using positive electrospray ionization under multiple reactions monitoring mode. Chromatographic separation of FK506 and ascomycin was achieved on a Hypersil BDS C₁₈ column with a mobile phase consisting of methanol‐water (containing 2 mM ammonium acetate, 95 : 5, v/v). The intra‐ and inter‐batch precision of the method were less than 8.8 and 9.8%, respectively. The intra‐ and inter‐batch accuracies ranged from 97.5 to 104.0%. The lowest limit of quantification for FK506 was 0.5 ng/mL. The method was applied to a FK506 tissue distribution study with or without a dose of Wuzhi (WZ) tablet. Most of the FK506 tissue concentrations were slightly increased after a concomitant WZ tablet dose, but the whole blood concentration of FK506 was dramatically increased 3‐fold after a concomitant WZ tablet dose. These results indicated that the LC‐MS/MS method was rapid and sensitive enough to quantify FK506 in different rat tissues, and strict drug monitoring is recommended when co‐administering WZ tablet in clinical use. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.